A look at Tyler Colvin, eyeing Jayson Werth's career

Some commenter over at the Roto Professor was hating on Colvin, check it out: Is Tyler Colvin a Poor Man's Jayson Werth?

Cubs surprisingly impressive 2010 starting rotation

Fielder Independant Pitching is a stat that measures the events a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. For all other balls in play it is up to the fielders to decide whether an at bat becomes a hit or an out. Reading a write up on the newest Cub, Carlos Pena at Fan Graphs, I came across this note that was a little staggering:

"Each of the team’s five presumptive starters — Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny,Randy Wells, and Ryan Dempster, had a FIP under 4.00 in 2010. These combined could lead the Cubs back into the picture for a relatively weak NL Central."

To have all five starters performing at the level of a #2 or #3 is a testament to the seemingly unappreciated season this rotation collectively put together.

This is more evidence to support the notion that it is misguided for the Cubs to be pursuing a starter right now, in a time when they claim to be under cost constraints. $10 million to Carlos Pena was a little expensive, but has a chance to be a strong value with Pena's combination of on-base ability, power and solid defense. The Cubs are also pursuing Brandon Webb while shopping Tom Gorzelanny. This is a swap that I would welcome with open arms, but the question is where do the Cubs get the money to sign Webb? (edit: Pena's contract is structured to allow for this)

The may lie in their ability to trade Kosuke Fukudome, a move that would save about $6 million, assuming they would have to eat half of his contract.

Lost in the shuffle is Kerry Wood, a player every Cubs fan would love to see pitch again in the Friendly Confines. However, Wood is coming off of a $10 million salary and may now be priced outside of the Cubs range. A hopeless optimist may wonder if Kid K would come back on a hometown discount. One can dream.

'This Old Cub' Ron Santo dies at 70

With Ron Santo, a man with such optimistic conviction, one would have thought there would be justice of some kind before he died. While the Hall of Fame dream has been dying a long, agonizing death for Santo and all those rooting for his induction, I feel that even beyond this piece of recognition that Santo was owed more before his time was up on this earth. A Cubs World Series obviously would have been the ultimate gift for him to receive. Many have come before him, though and have never seen the Chicago National League Ball Club even reach a World Series, much less win one, but in some strange way I had really thought that he would be alive when it finally happens.

I’ll never forget the play calls. Whether calls of ignorance, forgetfulness or shear bliss, no one could bring out the emotions of fellow die hard Cubs fans like Ron Santo could. Sure, to the casual baseball fan or listener on the radio, he was not the best color coordinator in the business. In fact, he may have been the worst. But to the those whose emotions imitated Santo’s, the audience that truly cared, there is no one those fans would have rather listen to on the color commentary than Ron.

Santo was loved, and will forever be loved by Cubs fans and baseball fans as long as this great game continues to be played. When the Cubs retired his number 10 in 2003, he said to the fans, “This is my hall of fame.” While it’s likely that he did not mean that entirely, the #10 will fly above Wrigley Field for as long as it stands and Ron Santo will always be remembered. As for the Hall of Fame, there is still a chance he can be inducted in 2012. What a shame it will be if he is finally inducted and is not there to accept the award. For that reason I almost hope he is not inducted, but if there is any justice left for this man, he deserves this final recognition. A 9-time All Star selection with 5 straight Gold Gloves from 1964 to 1968, a .277 career batting average and 342 home runs at the hot corner, his resume stand up to many at the position who have already been inducted.

I will miss you Ron, it will never be the same listening to a Cubs game without you.

Logic will break your heart

So I'm listening to classic songs from the Stills debut, wondering to myself, has it really been more than two years since their last album? These guys are notorious plodders when it comes to releasing new music, so I did what I'm sure many people do (or maybe not?) and googled when their next album would be coming out. While I've struggled to find that info, I did find a decidedly tasty morsel of info from aux.tv :

"In 2005, guitarist Greg Paquet left the band to finish school, bringing Hamelin from the drums to the front, a position which he struggled to fill on Without Feathers, notwithstanding his role as the band’s primary songwriter. Paquet has returned to The Stills for their fourth album. Hamelin describes the reunion as a natural one, based more on their friendship than anything else."

This is exciting stuff. After the bitter disappointment of Without Feathers, I put the blame squarely on Greg Paquet’s shoulders. I consoled myself with the conjured belief that if Greg Paquet never left the band, the Stills would still have the magic. Well Greg, here is your chance to prove it—to me. Time to atone for the band releasing Without Feathers, make it up to Stills fans across the globe who hoped and waited for a follow up to Logic only to be rewarded with an album worthy of Frisbee-ing out of your car window.

Now I do have to say thank you, and well done to the Stills for their third LP, 2008’s Ocean’s Will Rise. Quality album that gets better with every play. However, Stills, you made us wait five years to get a decent follow up to your debut. Now that everyone’s favorite guitarist, Greg, is back hopefully you guys can expedite the process.

This unfortunately does not look to be the case. Instead, the Stills are changing up their sound to “sex and dark.” Whatever that is, as long as Greg Paquet’s on guitar, it doesn’t matter. Seriously though, here is what chief songwriter Dave Hamelin had to say about the new direction of the Stills sound with Greg Paquet back on guitar:

“Now that he’s back, I’m playing drums again… It’s a little looser. We got a looser, “slivlier” kinda, it’s less rock n’ roll, it’s more like sludgy & dark, – sex and dark.”

Wha... Maybe it’ll be sweet? I'm hopeful, especially now that the band is back to Logic-style full strength, but it sounds like this next album has the unfortunate chance of flying out my window at dangerously high speeds. I also I get the feeling that Hamelin is just throwing random words out there just to make the album seem more interesting. Maybe this album really will be full of “sex” and “dark”-ness, but come on guys, at least throw an mp3 out there to give your devoted fans a taste of the impending sexiness.

Alcides Escobar: post-hype sleeper 2011

Check out my look at Alcides Escobar, the over-hyped for 2010 but possibly undervalued for 2011 shortstop of the Milwaukee Brewers Kansas City Royals (who look like they're going to run).

RotoProfessor.com

I've started writing fantasy baseball articles for a website called www.rotoprofessor.com (no, I am not the RotoProfessor). Check out the first post on Starlin Castro's 2o11 fantasy value.

Resurgence of Soto

The summer of 2010 has not been kind to Cubs fans, some having labeled the year a lost season before the calendar read July, so nothing can make up for half a season’s worth of meaningless baseball. There are, however, more than a few reasons to continue watching Cubs baseball (see Starlin Castro, Tyler Colvin, the continued progression of Fukudome, etc.) but none is more exciting to watch than the return of Geovany Soto.

Put simply: Geovany Soto is having a better offensive season than Joe Mauer. Let that sink in. Three time batting champion and former MVP Joe Mauer has not been as productive (per plate appearance) as Geovany Soto, despite a typical .326 batting average on the year. Soto is batting a pedestrian but respectable .280 on the year, seemingly ending the discussion. Moving on to less cosmetic statistics, however, shows a different story.

A player’s weighted on-base average takes the concept of OPS (on-base + slugging) and improves on it by using linear weight values for each possible event (read the joy of wOBA at Fan Graphs). The stat is scaled to on-base percentage where .335 is about average, .300 is a poor player and .400 is a great player. Soto's wOBA clocks in at .384, leading all major league catchers. Mauer comes in second at .372, with Brian McCann following at .369. The only problem is that Soto doesn’t have enough plate appearances to qualify as a league leader.

The fact remains, though, that Geovany Soto is having the best offensive season by a catcher in Major League Baseball. His OPS (.894) and slugging percentage (.500), predictably, also lead all MLB backstops. Soto’s year as a whole in many ways is identical to his rookie of the year winning 2008 campaign.

	On-Base	Slugging	ISO	K%	BB%	BABIP
2008	.364	.504	.219	24.5	11	0.332
2009	.321	.381	.163	23.3	12.9	0.246
2010	.394	.500	.220	25.2	16.1	0.321

Soto’s slugging, isolated power (slug – average) and strikeout rate are carbon copies, with the only real difference between this year and ’08 being his vastly improved walk rate. It is clear to see that Soto's forgettable 2009 was based in bad luck, as his batting average on balls in play was over 50 points below league average, while lying even further below his career numbers.

One may counter that Soto will see his high BABIP come back down to earth, however, the high BABIP numbers of 2008 and 2010 are fueled by incredibly high line drive percentages. In 2010 Soto has a career high LD% of 24.8, which (if he had enough plate appearances to qualify) would be third among all Major League hitters (coincidentally one spot above Mauer at 24.4%).

At 27-years-old, Geo is comfortably settling into his prime, and there is nothing in the stats to say that his offensive output will slow down. The way his 2008 and 2010 seasons compare, the numbers he is putting up this year seem easily repeatable. He will always strike out more than the average hitter with the vicious way he attacks the ball, but with those violent swings, and subsequent misses, comes possibly the most powerful catcher in Major League Baseball.

If only he had enough plate appearances to qualify.