Analyzing the Matt Garza trade

Fantasy Fallout: Matt Garza traded to the Cubs

Derrek Lee vs. Paul Konerko: WAR Graphs

On the eve of our new year, Derrek Lee signed a one year $7.25 million deal with the Orioles. I'm still not sure exactly why he wasn't a good fit to return to the Cubs, who instead spent millions more on a weaker defensive first baseman and lesser all around hitter in Carlos Pena.

This fixation with a power lefty bat simply will not go away. I pray that Carlos Pena is the answer to the decade-long ailment the Cubs suffer from. It seemed to begin with Matt Stairs. Stairs lasted a year, his lefty stick replaced with a Coors-bloated Jeremy Burnitz, who morphed into Jacque "Strap" Jones, who was replaced with what all Cubs fans assumed was a blessed gift from the East in Kosuke Fukudome. Then there was the Milton Bradley soap opera that I have exorcised from my memory. The most recent casualty of the Lefty Power Bat Blues is Derrek Lee, who they have cast aside in favor of the almighty left-handed thumper.

I actually do like the Pena signing, but I would rather have Double Play Derrek manning first.

Long intro into my actual point, which was this comparison between former and current Chicago first basemen. I've just started playing with these WAR graphs that you can create over at FanGraphs and I thought this would be a pretty interesting comparison given that both players were free agents this year, and both will be 35 in 2011. WAR is Wins Above Replacement and estimates how many wins a player would be worth to his team over a replacement player, such as a Triple-A call-up, using a combination of offensive and defensive metrics.

This first graph shows each player's best season on the left, down to his worst on the right. Lee's incredible 2005 (1.080 OPS, .446 wOBA) gives him the highest plot on the graph, but as you can see their plots are incredibly intertwined, Derrek looking to have the slight advantage most likely due to superior defense.

What's interesting about these graphs is that by the contracts each player just signed, one would not think that Derrek Lee was the better player. The plots are eerily similar, but there is clearly a slight nod toward Lee. Derrek though had to settle for a one year deal despite being a year removed from .306/.393/.579 season, while Konerko cashes in on a three year deal at $4-5 million more per season. And all because of the last two plots on the last graph. The fact that Derrek had his mid-30's career year in 2009 and Konerko had his in 2010 means that Paul Konerko is a much richer man, despite being a slightly worse player.

(create graphs pitting up to four players against each other here)

Hoping Dayan Viciedo wins the White Sox 3B job...

...so that I can have myself some delicious moon shots at the CI position on my fantasy team next year: White Sox 3B Options

Loving Jered Weaver for 2011 fantasy baseball

Rotoprofessor.com: Can Jered Weaver repeat his 2010 success?

Favorite Songs of 2010

40. Fang Island – The Illinois

39. Girls – Carolina

38. Avey Tare – 3 Umbrellas

37. Abe Vigoda – Crush

36. Wavves – Green Eyes

35. The Morning Benders – Promises

34. Pantha du Prince – Sick to My Side

33. Panda Bear – Last Night at the Jetty

32. Women – Eyesore

31. Ariel Pink’s Haunted Graffiti – Round and Round

30. Avey Tare – Oliver Twist

29. Tame Impala – Alter Ego

28. Women – Locust Valley

27. Arcade Fire – Sprawl II (Mountains Upon Mountains)

26. Robyn – We Dance To The Beat

25. Delorean – Come Wander

24. Panda Bear – Alsatian Darn

23. Of Montreal – Hydra Fancies

22. Dom – Jesus

21. Crystal Castles ft. Robert Smith – Not in Love

20. Gold Panda – Snow & Taxis

19. Spoon – Is Love Forever?

18. Tame Impala – It’s Not Meant To Be

17. Hot Chip – Take It In

16. Kendal Johansson – Blue Moon

15. Sleigh Bells – Riot Rhythm

14. Panda Bear – Slow Motion

13. Caribou – Found Out

12. ceo – White Magic

11. LCD Soundsystem – One Touch

10. Active Child – Voice of an old friend

9. The Morning Benders – Excuses

8. MGMT – Song For Dan Treacy

7. Beach House – 10 Mile Stereo

6. Broken Social Scene – Sweetest Kill

5. Local Natives – Wide Eyes

4. Arcade Fire – Ready to Start

3. Wavves – Super Soaker

2. Cut Copy – Where I’m Going

1. Gauntlet Hair – I was thinking…

Ted Lilly an underrated fantasy option

Post over at Rotoprofessor, Is Ted Lilly An Overlooked Fantasy Option?

Favorite Albums of 2010

1. Beach House - Teen Dream

Instant calm, peace, and relaxation. Oh and, as Gorilla vs. Bear mentioned in their list, “it has the best songs.”

2. Arcade Fire – The Suburbs

I loved so many different songs on this album. First “Ready To Start,” then “Sprawl II,” these two are predictable. The more I listened though, the more I loved songs like “The Suburbs,” “Empty Room,” “Rococo,” etc. But as a whole, it’s not the same listening experience as Teen Dream. The Suburbs may have better singles, but the sum of Teen Dream’s parts is greater as far as my ears are concerned.

3. Tame Impala – Innerspeaker

This is just a fun album. Psych-rock rooted in an instantly recognizable throwback style, however, they put their own unique spin on this familiar, classic rock sound. Similar to Beach House, the album flows incredibly well, each song an integral part of the mix.

4. Wavves – King of the Beach

Finally an alternative rock album that I can actually rock the F out to, it’s been a while.

5. Robyn – Body Talk

I really am surprised to be putting this album up here, but honestly it could have been even higher. There isn’t a better collection of 15 songs that came out this year, but since it’s more of a greatest hits collection for the year, it doesn’t feel like an album. In the end, that really doesn’t matter.

6. The Morning Benders – Big Echo

A beautifully laid back, grand album that can’t help but have greatly benefited by Chris Taylor’s (of Grizzly Bear) production. Just like GB, every little note, voice or prick of an instrument seems expertly aimed at creating a different mood for each song, an attention to detail that is rare to hear.

7. Broken Social Scene – Forgiveness Rock Record

Speaking of “grand” albums, this one may take the cake. But it’s BSS and they can basically do no wrong. Any number of songs on this album may be considered favorites among fans, for me I always enjoy “All to All,” but tracks like “Highway Slipper Jam,” “Ungrateful Little Father,” and especially “Sweetest Kill” really stand out.

8. Caribou - Swim

This album was self-described as “Underwater Dance” music, and is a completely new direction for Daniel Snaith (who is Carbiou), yet somehow he makes it seem like he’s an old pro at creating electronic dance music. Undoubtedly, this still feels like a Caribou album, and its the allure of the mystical north that he somehow intertwines in his music that keeps me coming back for more.

9. Avey Tare – Down There

Another album described as “underwater,” Down There is a much darker journey than Swim. On “Heather In The Hospital,” the bass begins by mimicking your own heart beating, but soon takes a chase-scene pace, propelling your heart rate forward with it, "It brings me down / machines of modern magic keeping folks above the ground / a nurse's scribbling pad, shadow, shape / a mother going mad."

Really not fun stuff to be singing about, but this mood pervades the entire album. While you may think that would just be depressing, it only strengthens the cohesiveness of some of the most interesting (and enjoyable) songs to be released this year.

10. Crystal Castles – S/T

Tracks like “Doe Deer” and “Birds” make this album for me. There are standouts like “Celestica” that most people can get down with, but if you enjoy the songs that string the singles together, these dirt-covered gems that chug by, chewing glass along the way, then you really will rock out to this album.

11. LCD Soundsystem – This is Happening

12. Delorean - Subiza

13. Of Montreal – False Priest

14. Spoon – Transference

15. The Radio Dept – Clinging To A Scheme