Len and Bob - 6/23/10: Brenly on Bradley

Milton Bradley strolls up to the plate, a chours of boos raining down around him from the Cubs fans who traveled to Safeco Field...

Len Kasper: Interesting reaction for a home player...Cubs fans letting him hear about it, some Mariners fans cheering him on.

Bob Brenly: Ha, they haven't seen enough of him yet.

Len: Swing and a miss. Oh for three with a walk last night and 0 for his last 15 overall.

Bob: Well I saw in the papers today a bar that has a "Milton Bradley Special," on Monday's you can buy a bottle of domestic beer for whatever Milton Bradley's batting average is.

Len: Did you buy one?

(Bradley grounds out to third)

Bob: Well, a couple more at bats like that I'll be able to buy a case!

Cubs coming up empty at the corners

To say its been a disappointing season so far for the Cubs corner men would be like saying Armando Galarraga felt a little let down by Jim Joyce's lapse in concentration on the would-be 27th out of his "one hit" performance last Wednesday night in Detroit. While Derrek Lee has clearly struggled, the stat line put up by Aramis Ramirez is downright terrifying. To date:

Derrek Lee: .238/.342/.369/.711

Aramis Ramirez: .169/.234/.287/.520

After posting an OPS above .900 in five of the last six seasons (.898 being the other season), a .520 mark from Aramis Ramirez in June is unimaginable. What's done is done, however, and the lack of production for both DLee and Aramis has been the major contributing factor to the Cubs less than inspiring 26-31 record. What matters now is how will these players hit moving forward.

Looking at a hitter's batting average on balls in play will help determine whether or not that player has been "lucky" so far this season if his BABIP is well above the league average (.300) or unlucky if his BABIP is much lower than the average. Currently, Derrek has a BABIP of .287, not too far off the league average. However, looking at DLee's personal career BABIP of .322 and one can see where he may be a victim of well struck balls that just happened to be hit straight to the opposition.

We need to look beyond just a players BABIP to see the full story, as sometimes players are just putting a lot of poorly hit balls in play. One look at Derrek's infield fly ball percentage though, as well as his line drive rate, confirm his low batting average has been at least partially driven by bad luck:

IFF%: 0

LD%: 23.7

Zero infield pops and a line drive percentage that is higher than any single season LD% during DLee's illustrious career. With nearly a quarter of Derrek's balls coming off the bat as line drives, a .238 batting average is a clear aberration. Also, after leading the league in double plays in 2008, Lee is hitting less grounders (37.8% in 2010, 40% for his carreer) and has maintained his fly ball rate (38.5% this year to 38.9% career). The reason he only has 6 home runs on the season is a result of an abnormally low HR/FB rate of 10% in 2010 (16.7% career rate.)

Aramis has suffered from an even more striking collapse in homers per fly balls, hitting just 5 home runs despite an off the charts 60% fly ball rate (45% career rate). This has led to a severely bottomed out HR/FB rate of just 6.1%. This will correct itself, and fast as Aramis has a career HR/FB of 13.4%. The jump in fly balls correlates to a lower LD% and much lower GB% which has helped contribute to a National League worst .189 batting average on balls in play.

To put it simply, Aramis will not continue to hit .169 all year long, that much is obvious, the real question is not will he bounce back, but how far will he bounce back? The most troublesome stat on the back of Aramis' baseball card is a strikeout rate of nearly 25%, up almost 10% over his career mark of 15.5%. Logic may tell you then that Aramis could be reaching more, swinging at bad pitches and coming up empty as a result. Frighteningly, this is not the case. Aramis is actually swinging at less pitches out of the zone this year (29.5%) than he was last year (31.5%) and is close to his career rate of 26.1%. The problem is that when he gets his pitch, he is not hitting it as consistently as he has in the past. Repeatedly, pitchers have been able to either beat Aramis with the fastball or at least get him to foul it off before putting him away with a different pitch.

Aramis Ramirez is lost at the plate and it shows in the stats. From his peripheral numbers, he should definitely have a few more home runs and he is obviously not a .169 hitter. Is he a .300 hitting, 30 home run third baseman though? For tomorrow's game against the Brewers, I doubt it. Right now Aramis looks more like a .260 hitting 25 homer guy, but the season is still young and I expect Aramis to right the ship. However, even the biggest Aramis supporters (such as myself) will have to temper expectations.

I am all in on Derrek Lee though. Line drives are at a career high and he's keeping the ground balls to a minimum. Once the wind starts blowing out at Wrigley, look out for DLee. Better times are ahead, right now it's time to keep hope alive.

Lou-sing it: Z to 'pen

My mind has just been blown. Then again, how can one be surprised? In one of the most idiotic moves in Cubs history, the team has taken Carlos Zambrano’s value to the team and cut it in half as Lou Piniella announced before tonight’s game that Big Z will be moving to the bullpen. Bottom line, this move makes the team worse. No matter how good Zambrano is in the bullpen, the team has just taken a shotgun and blown a hole in its chances to reach the postseason this year.

The most valuable relief pitcher in baseball last year was Jonathan Broxton, who put together a 2.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). This was half a win higher than any other relief pitcher in the majors. Carlos Zambrano, in his “off year” of 2009 was able to scrape out a cool 3.6 WAR. Simply put, relief pitchers can never be as valuable as good starting pitchers, and contrary to the belief of some, Carlos Zambrano is a very good starting pitcher. A workhorse good for 180-200 innings, the Cubs will now be giving at least 100 of those innings to Tom Gorzellany and Carlos Silva. If you don’t gag at that sentence I’d check your pulse.

This is Lou Piniella, completely losing his mind. Lunacy is reigning supreme at Clark and Addison, as there is simply no explanation for this move. Yes, the Cubs do not have a setup man. Somehow it has taken 18 runs in 14 different 8^th innings this year for them to realize that no, John Grabow is not a setup man. He’s not even a good relief pitcher! He almost cracked 1 win above replacement last year with a “workmanlike” 0.2. However, it represented a great improvement over his -0.1 in 2008. His career best is 0.5 WAR in 2006. He probably drank half a beer with his buddies to celebrate. Forget wins above replacement; just look at how many batters he walks. His past three seasons he has posted walks per nine innings of 4.76, 4.83, and 4.38. That combined with a pitiful K/BB of 1.43 last year is a recipe for heartache in the late innings. As bad as John Grabow and the rest of the bullpen are though, this is a move of the most bone-headed proportions.

Almost as mystifying is the fact that Mt. Zambrano didn’t spew volcanic lava all over New York City upon hearing the news. In Zambrano’s own words, “Like Arnold Schwarzenegger says, ‘I’ll be back.’”

I sure hope so, but Lou is saying the move may not be temporary. 2008 first round pick Andrew Cashner has punched out 25 hitters in 17 innings at Double A Tennessee, and has the 98-MPH fastball and 88-MPH slider that would fit the 8^th inning like a glove. After posting a 3.39 ERA in Double A last year, and with a 3.07 ERA in 137 minor league innings, calling up Cashner would seem to be a much more logical and much last drastic move than turning the team’s supposed “ace” into a reliever.

Piniella said that Zambrano will be ready to come out of the bullpen starting Friday. Never a dull moment with this team, as they aimlessly wander through the season with no sense of direction at all, lost in Lou’s madness.

Carlos Marmol is...

The Magic Man!

Marmol K's two to close out a Cubs win on Friday, he now has 5 and 1/3 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts to (this is the best part) two walks on the young season.

Washed Out at The Empty Bottle - 4/5/10

Walking into The Empty Bottle for the first time is an experience that should illicit a smile, as it dawns on you that this is almost an exact replica of the tiny, grimy bar that you would frequent every so often in college, and while that doesn't make it a great place to grab a drink, it sure makes it one hell of a nice place to watch live music. $1.50 PBR flowed like milk at an FFA convention and even with your back up to the bar, the intimate setting puts the viewer right in the midst of the action. You couldn't get away from the music if you wanted to.

And with Washed Out playing, who in their right mind would want to?

Ernest Greene (Washed Out) opened his set with some body shakers, and while the bulk of it was unreleased material, the songs were crowd pleasers as the bass felt as if it wanted to break free from the speakers and beat itself into the ground. This was a very good thing. Heavy bass, mixing with a thick layer of haze over the vocals made listening to actual lyrics impossible, but created a vibe that would carry over for the rest of the show. Greene’s unbridled energy for his music infected the crowd and grew as the show progressed. After the mood was established, Greene exited, saying he would be back to play the rest of his set with Small Black (who was actually headlining the show) as the backing band.

Small Black was an impressive mix of bass, drums and enthusiasm. The keyboardist and main vocalist shared the singing duties, with the lead vocalist twisting some knobs every so often. The music was more electronic than I had imagined, hearing only a couple of songs prior to the show, but it was an entertaining if not original sound and I was grooving along with the rest of the crowd. It did, however, leave me longing for Washed Out to come back on stage. The early Washed Out set was good, but it wasn't what I came to see. Once Greene took the stage with Small Black a new energy filled the small, dark room as the familiar sounds of the Life of Leisure EP came to life.

Straight out of the gate, one could tell the disarming "Hold Out" was going to be different than the preceding songs. The menacing bass line was heard (and felt) loud and clear. There was also a noticeable change in the way the crowd was reacting to the music, as if caught in a trance, while earlier it was just one big party. Small Black had a lot to do with this, as the bell-ringing guitar echoing throughout "Hold Out" is essential to the song’s attraction. While the euphoria that shot straight to my brain upon hearing the opening to the next track, “You’ll See It,” was sustained throughout the song, it seemed clear to me that “Hold Out” was the highlight of the show.

The most well received song was unsurprisingly Washed Out's most popular, "Feel It All Around," and it did not disappoint. As the opening salvo of bass vibrated up and down my spine, the crowd let out a roar of approval that dissolved into a sustained groove, captivated by the pure, chill essence of the song. The departure from dance-inducing bass to a stoning sense of calm was a chance to relax and soak in the surroundings. As the set drew to a close, Greene joined in on an exuberant version of Small Black's "Despicable Dogs," which he had remixed last year for a split EP (get the remix here, thank me later).

Overall the show more than met any expectations I had going into it. The venue was perfect, the bass and overall sound was cranked way up, and the bands seemed to have endless supplies of energy. The set arrangement was interesting but worked surprisingly well, how can you pass up a delicious double dosage of Washed Out? I couldn't help but feel some of the members of Small Black weren't thrilled to have their set cut short, but the way they played did not reflect this. Without Small Black, this concert would not have been nearly as good. As the two bands combined the show turned from guys turning knobs and cranking bass into a full-fledged crowd pleasing force, with both Small Black and Washed Out proving they are bands to take notice of.

How to bake a DeRosa cake

When the Cubs traded away Mark DeRosa last off season, the only possible reaction was, "huh?" Many fans regarded him as the MVP of the 2008 team (wrongly), he backed up nearly every position on an always aching ball club, oh and the only depth behind him was Mike Fontenot. Now I like the Font-e-not as much as the next Cubs fan, but to rely on him at second base, and trade away your only insurance for an injury prone Aramis Ramirez, only to save a whopping $5.5 million (used on Milton Bradley) crippled the Cubs season. In today's market, $5.5 million can actually go a long way, but not if your name is Jim Hendry. Bobby Abreu for example made just $5 million last year. In true Hendry fashion, however, Jim took almost half of what he saved on DeRosa and spent it on Aaron Miles. He then gave Bradley double the amount of Abreu's contract, at three times the length.

Needless to say, it's a very real possibility that Hendry was experimenting with illegal drugs during the 2008 offseason. He did make one under the radar move last year, though, that may prove to be one of his more insightful pickups, by acquiring Jeff Baker mid-season. The Cubs didn't get Baker without having to pay up on their end of the deal, as they traded away one of the greatest baseball names of all time in minor league pitcher Al Albuquerque. Al's numbers luckily do not live up to his name as he has a career 1.45 whip due mainly to a 4.2 BB/9 (um, no). Now I'm not saying that Baker is the next Ryne Sandberg but I think he can very easily wind up being the next Mark DeRosa.

Baker received his first extended look in the majors in 2007, posting an unimpressive line of .222/.296/.347 in 144 at bats. He quickly adjusted in 2008 though, with an improved .268/.322/.468 with 12 jacks in 299 at bats. He followed up the success of '08 by starting off ice cold last year with 3 hits in his first 23 at bats for Colorado. The trade to the Cubs must have lit a fire under his ass as he thawed out nicely, hitting .305/.362/.448 in 203 at bats as a Cub.

In Mark DeRosa's first stint with the Cubs, he put up a similar line with a respectable .293/.371/.420 in 502 at bats. Obviously Baker's is a much smaller sample, but it is not hard to see similarities in the skill sets here. A significant part of DeRosa's value the past two seasons has been his increased power. Taking a closer look look at the numbers, the stat Isolated Power is defined as "a measure of a hitter's raw power" and is found by taking (SLG - AVG). DeRosa's 2007 ISO was a below average .127 (league average .150). Similarly, Baker had an ISO of .125 the same year. Baker then jumped all the way to .205 in 2008. DeRosa followed suit with an ISO of .196.

Baker, who will turn 29 this year, didn't show the pop last year that he did in 2008, with 4 home runs in 226 at bats, however, in DeRosa's 28-year-old season he hit just 6 bombs in 266 at bats. Given the similarities in the development of these two players, I think it is a safe bet that Baker reaches double digit home runs in 2010. As you can see, Baker was unlucky last year, with just 6.5% of his fly balls turning into home runs:

HR/FB
2007	9.80%
2008	16.70%
2009	6.50%
Career	13.30%

With that number bound to bounce back up to at least his career average, Baker can provide above average power for a middle infielder. On the defensive side of the ball, Baker came up as a third baseman but has shifted to second while also spending time at both corner outfield spots as well as first base. Sound familiar?

Jeff Baker is a younger version of Mark DeRosa who is further along in his development than DeRosa was at his age. DeRo didn't make a real impact on a team until 2006 as a 31-year-old Texas Ranger. Baker will be given his chance to do the same as 29-year-old splitting second base duties with Little Babe Ruth himself, Mike Fontenot. I think the smart money here is on Baker.

Album Review - Toro Y Moi

Toro Y Moi – Causers of This

80/100

A sweet, slow crackle of speaker backed by a blissed out “ahhhh” brings Causers of This to life, as gorgeous opening track “Blessa” sets an immediately pleasing tone for the rest of the album. A perfect table-setting track—that also happens to be the record’s best song—“Blessa” combines the melody of Panda Bear, with the laid-back delivery and diffidence of Washed Out. Chaz Bundick, the 23-year-old who is Toro Y Moi, may openly display his influences (you can’t help but think he was listening to Ambivalence Avenue released by Bibio last year when listening to more than a few songs) however, on Causers of This he proves to have the ability to carve out his own unique voice in this “chillwave” genre.

In the same vein as Ambivalence Avenue, Causers of This covers a broad range of musical styles. The difference is that Bundick manages to reign in his sound and keep it together in the context of the album. That is no knock on Bibio, who’s album was one of last years best, but Toro Y Moi keeps the listener engaged using a continuous shift in approach while maintaining a surprising sense of continuity. Nowhere is the Bibio influence more apparent than on “Lissoms” where the step-stutter-step of a broken beat begs to be listened to. Drawing itself into and out of the speakers, the jagged, angular beats blend together with tape hiss and subdued sounds of pleasure, contrasting beautifully in the background.

One unmistakable misstep, however, is that previously released “Talamak” is reworked to diminishing returns. The former version of the song featured a constant, echoing give-and-take of volume levels throughout the track. It was subtle enough to not bother the listener, yet was able to weave itself into the fabric of the song. The former also had a creepily awesome opening that somehow reminded you of “The Twilight Zone” and Fischerspooner at the same time. The new “Talamak,” while still enjoyable, is slightly sped up and features the incessant honking of what sounds like a synthesized harmonica, seeming forced and tacky in comparison.

Similarly, a cheesy piano line opens up “Low Shoulder,” which has the opposite effect of the harmonica and works better when it turns into a keyboard synth. “Low Shoulder” goes against Toro Y Moi’s strengths as Bundick seems much more comfortable when throwing down acutely articulated beats (“Lissoms”, “Minors”), or chilling out with a drug induced blend of bass, haze and synths (“Thanks Vision”). “Low Shoulder” tries to split the difference and make itself a pop song at the same time, causing it to teeter a little too dangerously close to the edge of crowd-pleasing cutesiness. The song does manage to close on a high note however, as the second half features much less of the piano, ending instead with a mix of previously successful tricks.

Ending on a high note just must be the way Toro Y Moi rolls, as the title track closes the album on a sugar rush. “Causers of This” is sticky and sweet, as chopped up female vocals are sprinkled across an array of pulsating beats, ending with a repeated “It’s all good, it’s all good.” Yes, Mr. Chaz Bundick, it sure is.

It’s the minor details that keep the album from being great, which is to be expected from someone [named Chaz Bundick] whose musical creativity seems boundless. At times it appears the creative juices were spilling over just a little too much, with added touches that simply do not work. For example the meandering of “Imprint After,” which I can only describe as sounding like bad MGMT, may draw differing reactions. Equally, one’s affinity for the spaztastic, hyper kinetic energy of “Causers of This” may also be the same sound that another listener finds increasingly annoying.

While I fail to see the Animal Collective comparisons to Toro Y Moi outside of “Blessa” and the abundance of bass both use, Animal Collective have achieved the ability to hone their brimming talent into not only wondrously weird and unique songs, but also into universally appealing music. Causers of This shows off a distinctive talent set and promise for future releases, but it does have its misgivings and bumps along the road. This is a full-length debut after all. Forget about that, though because this is an impressive album and would be a warm and welcome choice for your ears and a snug pair of headphones after coming inside from January’s chill.